The crypto market is bracing for major token unlocks over the next seven days, which could lead to more volatility ahead. According to data from Tokenomist, the crypto space will see a little over $428 million in token unlocks between…
Bitcoin landfill guy loses UK appeal, plans human rights case
James Howells, the Welsh man who lost $678 million worth of bitcoin in landfill over ten years ago, has lost his UK court appeal and is now planning to take his case to the European Court of Human Rights.
In a statement shared with Protos, Howells shared a snippet of the order issued by Court of Appeal Judge Lord Justice Nugee yesterday.
Judge Nugee rejected his application for permission to appeal and claimed it didn’t have “any real prospect of success,” and that “There is no other compelling reason why the appeal must be heard.”
Despite this setback, Howells claims it’s “time to take this case to the highest level possible, the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR),” and says he will be exploring appealing to the ECHR.
Read more: Welsh man claims he can pay for landfill dig in search of lost 8,000 bitcoin
Howells believes the UK courts have set a “dangerous precedent for property rights in the UK,” and that his property rights, along with his rights to a fair trial, “have been denied twice by outdated UK courts.”
“Despite the courts acknowledging that Newport City Council does not own my Bitcoin, they have ruled that because my hard drive was mistakenly discarded in 2013 by a known third party, the Council now has the absolute right to prevent me from recovering it, ignoring fundamental property rights and disregarding numerous historical precedents in the process.”
“If this ruling stands, it means that any UK resident who mistakenly disposes of valuable property, or has it disposed of by someone else, can be permanently denied access to it, with no legal remedy,” Howells claims.
Howells chance of finding bitcoin 1 in 902 million
Howells lost his UK High Court case last January. He shortly applied to appeal the decision and said that he would employ the use of an “AI agent” specialised in UK law.
Craig Wright, another Brit who used AI to write his UK court appeals, was fined £225,000 ($290,000) over his improper use of AI and was told that he “risked significantly misleading the court.”
Then in February it was revealed that Newport City Council plans to shut down the landfill site by 2026 and turn it into a solar farm.
Read more: British man says Welsh city could ‘look like Vegas’ if it dug up lost bitcoin
Howells’ case partially relies on his plan to find the Bitcoin hard drive, but UK waste management firm Business Waste estimates that Howells has a 0.00000011% chance of finding it.
Its spokesperson told The Block that Howells’ bitcoin drive “has been exposed to the elements, leachate, heat and also been subject to compacting,” resulting in a “0% chance of recovery.”
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How much pain can Strategy take before debt exceeds bitcoin?
From November 2021 to November 2022, bitcoin crashed 77% from $69,000 to $15,500. If the current, 2025 bear market repeats a deeper version of that cycle, Michael Saylor’s Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) could wind up with more debt than bitcoin.
Already, analysts are calculating how much more pain Saylor can take. Bitcoin is 23% off its all-time high, and the premium that Strategy (MSTR) investors are now paying for MSTR shares above its bitcoin holdings has crashed 47% from 3.4X to 1.8X.
Saylor and Strategy have wisely eliminated any collateralized debt and therefore liquidation risk from his company’s balance sheet; however, they still have a tremendous amount of debt: $8.2 billion. Those debts are coming due over the coming years.
Max pain for Strategy
If bitcoin falls far enough, Strategy could owe more to creditors than it possesses in assets. Specifically, the aggregate principal of outstanding Strategy bonds totals $8.2 billion. That notional debt is cushioned by its $41 billion worth of bitcoin today.
Yet unless bitcoin and the company’s highly-correlated market cap remain elevated enough to incentivize bondholders to forego principal repayment for MSTR share conversion, Strategy will need to pay out the bonds in US dollars.
In other words, if a bear market persists, MicroStrategy could wind up with more debt than bitcoin. There is a provision in every Strategy convertible note that requires, at the bondholder’s election, US dollar principal repayment or bond repurchase.
A further 80% or $32.8 billion decline in the company’s bitcoin value would wipe out the company’s buffer of excess bitcoin value. Expressed as a bitcoin price, that is $16,800 per bitcoin. Although that might seem far away from today’s $84,200, such a decline has plenty of historical precedent.
For example, bitcoin crashed 99% in June 2011. Bitcoin crashed 65% within December 2013 alone – and then halved again for 12 months. From December 2017 to February 2018, bitcoin crashed 70%. In February-March 2020, bitcoin crashed 63%. Starting November 2021, bitcoin crashed 77% for 12 months.
Clearly, bitcoin has a volatile history. Yet price alone is not enough to put Strategy out of business; the timing matters.
Not price alone, but rather price on particular dates
Strategy’s debt is not continuously due but rather payable on specific dates. Aside from small interest payments at less than 2.3% annually, the company has no major debt obligations until September 15, 2027.
On that so-called Put Date, if MicroStrategy’s market cap fails to incentivize bondholders to convert their bonds into MSTR equity or continue waiting for principal repayment in 2028, these bondholders may require Strategy to repurchase their $1.01 billion loan.
Put Dates for other series of convertible bonds start in September 2027, as noted above, and extend to the final series in June 2029.
In summary, Strategy will have more debt than bitcoin if crypto repeats a worsened version of a 2022-style bear market. Those 12 months ending in November 2022 saw a bitcoin decline of 77%. Add a few more percentage points to that figure this time around, and Strategy would find itself in big trouble.
Read more: Michael Saylor’s bitcoin announcements no longer seem to pump MSTR stock
Hope to avoid a repeat of 2022
Specifically, if by September 2027 bitcoin has declined another 80% from today’s price, Strategy will owe more than it possesses in bitcoin, ceteris paribus. On September 15, 2027, it would then need to sell enough stock or assets like bitcoin to raise about USD$1 billion to repurchase that convertible note.
Further declines below that level, especially after corporate operating and interest expenses, would become particularly problematic in 2028 with Put Dates for another $6 billion worth of bonds.
Obviously, such a catastrophic bear market is hard to imagine for anyone who has joined crypto or the Strategy investment community within the past couple years. Yet for experienced crypto investors, such numbers are far from unimaginable. Many have lived experience of these types of drawdowns. In many ways, prolonged bear markets have become emblematic of bitcoin’s volatile history as the world struggles to value its disruptive technology.
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